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Dr Pv lakshmaiah IAS Study Circle > Current affairs > Geography > India as most populous can be more boon than bane

India as most populous can be more boon than bane

  • April 24, 2023
  • Posted by: admin
  • Category: Geography
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  1. Introduction
      • China projected to hand over the baton of the most populous country to India by mid-2023
      • General and pessimistic views over this change in demographic rank order
      • Population control widely seen as a panacea to avoid a grim future
      • Need to look deeper into the issue from an empirical and scientific perspective
  2. Population growth, size, composition
    • Nature of population growth, size and composition decides when a population becomes a “resource” or a “burden”
    • Carrying capacity is a dynamic concept which changes according to changing technology, the efficiency of production and consumption systems of a country
    • Total fertility rate of 2.0 in 2023, India is already at replacement level fertility, indicating that the population is on a path toward stabilisation
    • India’s population growth is in a decelerated mode until 2064, from which point it will become negative growth
    • Age composition of the population tells us about available support ratios in the form of the number of the working age population (15-64 years) against the dependent population (0-14 years and 65 years and above)
    • India has a demographic window of opportunity for the next 35 years to reap an economic dividend, with 68% of the working age population in 2023
  3. Relevant mechanisms
    • Four key mechanisms that translate a demographic bonus to economic dividend: employment, education and skills, health conditions, and governance
    • Job creation is an important mechanism to translate demographic bonus to economic dividend
    • Education, skills generation and ensuring a healthy lifespan are important channels that translate demographic opportunity into economic gains
    • Good governance, reflected through conscientious policies, is another important aspect for reaping demographic dividend
  4. In perspective
    • A younger population of India provides higher support ratios
    • India’s opportunity must be looked at in comparison to the consequences of population decline and ageing across some countries
    • India has the potential to become a worldwide market for both production and consumption, with lower manufacturing costs due to a relatively cheaper workforce
    • Available demographic opportunity in the form of a greater share of the working age population has the potential to boost per capita GDP by an additional 43% by 2061
    • Drastic population control methods run the risk of inducing forced population ageing, which would result in the nation “getting old before getting rich”
    • Policies that support an enabling environment that can provide high-quality education, good health care, respectable employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment are needed to avoid demographic disaster
  5. Conclusion
    • India must focus on reaping the available demographic dividend
    • Population growth in itself is not a burden, it is the nature of population growth, size and its composition that decides when a population becomes a “resource” or a “burden”
    • Opportunities and costs are the two sides of the coin when it comes to being the world’s largest populous country
    • India has a chance to leverage its demographic dividend and become an economic powerhouse if it can provide the necessary socio-economic and political enabling environment.